Oscar-Winning Predictions
While the Robert Altman blog-a-thon continues, let us not forget that tonight is the night that Hollywood acts like Hollywood again. After a year of small high-brow films and huge box-office disasters, the Academy give itself the pat on the back it so deserves (sarcasm). Jon Stewart, as neutered as he'll be, should still make for an entertaining evening. After last night's warm up at the Independent Spirit Awards, BROKEBACK will rule the night.
Who will walk away with the gold little bald guy tonight? Here's what I'm thinking... Expect an upset or two. Here's the full list of nominees.
Who will walk away with the gold little bald guy tonight? Here's what I'm thinking... Expect an upset or two. Here's the full list of nominees.
- Picture: BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
Listen, the reason for the "CRASH might win" cry is that it's the only movie mass audiences have seen. Don't be swayed by the talk of the upset here, it'll be in other categories.
- Directing: Ang Lee, BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
He's got the DGA and Golden Globes on his side. I'd love to see Clooney win--who I'd argue is more deserving--but it won't be in this category.
- Adapted Screenplay: Diana Osana and Larry McMurtry, BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
Open and shut case. The only long shot upset here is CAPOTE, but don't bet on it.
- Original Screenplay: Grant Heslov and George Clooney, GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.
Clooney's going to get a bone thrown at him this year, no two ways about it. Paul Haggis' CRASH will win three other awards to make up for the Academy "slipping" on this one.
- Actor in Leading Role: Philip Seymour Hoffman, CAPOTE
Done. and Done. Terrence Howard is the underdog here, but it's hard out here for a pimp.
- Actor in Supporting Role: Matt Dillon, CRASH
Instead of giving Paulie G the "sorry-we-didn't-give-you-an-award-last-year award," the Academy will give it to the only actor ACTIVELY campaigning FOR the statue. Dillon's a fine actor, though.
- Actress in Leading Role: Felicity Huffman, TRANSAMERICA
The BIG upset of the night. Reese is joining the Hollywood Royalty with her nomination. She'll get plenty of more chances at this award. Huffman is a damn-fine Actress, and not a movie star. She's also in the least glamorous role nominated, which proved to be gold for both Halle Berry and Charlize Theron. Also, I'd like to point out that men have been winning Oscars for years for playing men pretending to be women, and now it's the ladies' turn.
- Actress in Supporting Role: Rachel Weisz, THE CONSTANT GARDENER
Which one of these nominees is not like the other? I know, I know! The LEAD actress! Amy Adams should own this award, but Weisz' lead performance in the beautiful CONSTANT GARDENER has been winning every award in sight. Don't expect any deviations from formula tonight.
- Animated Feature: WALLACE & GROMIT IN THE CURSE OF THE WERE-RABBIT
The Academy MUST give Wallace & Gromit an Oscar. I think it's one of their rules.
- Art Direction: MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA
The first of many technical awards to go to this one.
- Cinematography: MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA
While there should be no contest that THE NEW WORLD is the rightful winner of this award, and GN&GL a strong second, MEMOIRS has picked up two guild awards.
- Costume Design: MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA
MEMOIRS was made for these techincal categories.
- Documentary Feature: ENRON: THE SMARTEST GUYS IN THE ROOM
Politics is king at this year's Oscars. Sure, the penguins were cute, but the Academy RARELY gives this award to the popular favorite. If the Academy wants to avoid politics, see MURDERBALL surprise everyone here.
- Documentary Short: GOD SLEEPS IN RWANDA
I got nothing. This sounds like a sure thing.
- Film Editing: CRASH
This is the only category I can compliment CRASH in... Sure, the acting is great--whatever. Paul Haggis' trite "race movie" is well put together. It'd be nice if CONSTANT picked up something here, but it won't.
- Foreign Language Film: PARADISE NOW, Palestine
Watch as the Academy cautiously courts controversy. Also, probably the only film they had a chance to see.
- Makeup: CINDERELLA MAN
This film should be up for everything. Universal couldn't even buy it a Best Picture slot! It'll have to settle for a Best Makeup statue.
- Original Score: BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
While I do hear echoes of Clint Eastwood's last two scores in BROKEBACK, this is easily the most recognizable and beautiful of the nominated scores.
- Original Song: "In the Deep," CRASH
CRASH continues to steamroll through the minor categories by making the Academy think that it is racist for nominating "It's Hard Out Here For a Pimp." Like "Blame Canada," it'll be sad to see the entire audience for "It's Hard out Here for a Pimp" and then see them give it away to a less deserving nominee.
- Animated Short Film: THE MOON AND THE SUN: A CONVERSATION IMAGINED
Disney pioneer John Canemaker's short film will upset here.
- Live Action Short Film: THE LAST FARM
Thank you iTunes for getting some exposure to this category. Next year, let's get the live action shorts, too. The Icelandic entry is easily the prettiest in a crowd that is either too film-school-y or too morbid.
- Sound Editing: KING KONG
Really, there's other competition here?
- Sound Mixing: KING KONG
The SFX sweep of KONG continues.
- Visual Effects: KING KONG
Did you see KING KONG?!
One last prediction... Robert Altman MIGHT win the Honorary Oscar tonight, but not without his speech being the HIGHLIGHT of the evening. Expect Hollywood to be admonished by the legendary rebel filmmaker!
Listen, the reason for the "CRASH might win" cry is that it's the only movie mass audiences have seen. Don't be swayed by the talk of the upset here, it'll be in other categories.
- Directing: Ang Lee, BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
He's got the DGA and Golden Globes on his side. I'd love to see Clooney win--who I'd argue is more deserving--but it won't be in this category.
- Adapted Screenplay: Diana Osana and Larry McMurtry, BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
Open and shut case. The only long shot upset here is CAPOTE, but don't bet on it.
- Original Screenplay: Grant Heslov and George Clooney, GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.
Clooney's going to get a bone thrown at him this year, no two ways about it. Paul Haggis' CRASH will win three other awards to make up for the Academy "slipping" on this one.
- Actor in Leading Role: Philip Seymour Hoffman, CAPOTE
Done. and Done. Terrence Howard is the underdog here, but it's hard out here for a pimp.
- Actor in Supporting Role: Matt Dillon, CRASH
Instead of giving Paulie G the "sorry-we-didn't-give-you-an-award-last-year award," the Academy will give it to the only actor ACTIVELY campaigning FOR the statue. Dillon's a fine actor, though.
- Actress in Leading Role: Felicity Huffman, TRANSAMERICA
The BIG upset of the night. Reese is joining the Hollywood Royalty with her nomination. She'll get plenty of more chances at this award. Huffman is a damn-fine Actress, and not a movie star. She's also in the least glamorous role nominated, which proved to be gold for both Halle Berry and Charlize Theron. Also, I'd like to point out that men have been winning Oscars for years for playing men pretending to be women, and now it's the ladies' turn.
- Actress in Supporting Role: Rachel Weisz, THE CONSTANT GARDENER
Which one of these nominees is not like the other? I know, I know! The LEAD actress! Amy Adams should own this award, but Weisz' lead performance in the beautiful CONSTANT GARDENER has been winning every award in sight. Don't expect any deviations from formula tonight.
- Animated Feature: WALLACE & GROMIT IN THE CURSE OF THE WERE-RABBIT
The Academy MUST give Wallace & Gromit an Oscar. I think it's one of their rules.
- Art Direction: MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA
The first of many technical awards to go to this one.
- Cinematography: MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA
While there should be no contest that THE NEW WORLD is the rightful winner of this award, and GN&GL a strong second, MEMOIRS has picked up two guild awards.
- Costume Design: MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA
MEMOIRS was made for these techincal categories.
- Documentary Feature: ENRON: THE SMARTEST GUYS IN THE ROOM
Politics is king at this year's Oscars. Sure, the penguins were cute, but the Academy RARELY gives this award to the popular favorite. If the Academy wants to avoid politics, see MURDERBALL surprise everyone here.
- Documentary Short: GOD SLEEPS IN RWANDA
I got nothing. This sounds like a sure thing.
- Film Editing: CRASH
This is the only category I can compliment CRASH in... Sure, the acting is great--whatever. Paul Haggis' trite "race movie" is well put together. It'd be nice if CONSTANT picked up something here, but it won't.
- Foreign Language Film: PARADISE NOW, Palestine
Watch as the Academy cautiously courts controversy. Also, probably the only film they had a chance to see.
- Makeup: CINDERELLA MAN
This film should be up for everything. Universal couldn't even buy it a Best Picture slot! It'll have to settle for a Best Makeup statue.
- Original Score: BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
While I do hear echoes of Clint Eastwood's last two scores in BROKEBACK, this is easily the most recognizable and beautiful of the nominated scores.
- Original Song: "In the Deep," CRASH
CRASH continues to steamroll through the minor categories by making the Academy think that it is racist for nominating "It's Hard Out Here For a Pimp." Like "Blame Canada," it'll be sad to see the entire audience for "It's Hard out Here for a Pimp" and then see them give it away to a less deserving nominee.
- Animated Short Film: THE MOON AND THE SUN: A CONVERSATION IMAGINED
Disney pioneer John Canemaker's short film will upset here.
- Live Action Short Film: THE LAST FARM
Thank you iTunes for getting some exposure to this category. Next year, let's get the live action shorts, too. The Icelandic entry is easily the prettiest in a crowd that is either too film-school-y or too morbid.
- Sound Editing: KING KONG
Really, there's other competition here?
- Sound Mixing: KING KONG
The SFX sweep of KONG continues.
- Visual Effects: KING KONG
Did you see KING KONG?!
One last prediction... Robert Altman MIGHT win the Honorary Oscar tonight, but not without his speech being the HIGHLIGHT of the evening. Expect Hollywood to be admonished by the legendary rebel filmmaker!
posted by jason.jackowski | Sunday, March 05, 2006
2 Comments:
Wrong, wrong, WRONG!!!!!!!!!!!!
Well, you were right about them throwing a bone to Clooney, but you picked the wrong bone, and grossly underestimated Hollywood's (self?) love of the odious Crash.
You were right about Memoirs of a Geisha, too. Did you see it? It just sounds so horrible to me that I assumed they would be too embarrassed to give it any awards. Good thing I didn't have any money riding on my picks this year.
Also wrong about Paradise Now. John Stewart, a very good host, even neutered, says Tsotsi is "great." Maybe I will go see it?
Josh,
I'm actually still reeling in shame for my incorrect predictions. CRASH?! How the fuck!?
Any other movie nominated this year, and I would've been perfectly okay with it taking the Best Picture award.
Man, Hollywood sure is homophobic. But, at least they aren't racist!
Jon Stewart was indeed a very good host. He actually didn't come off the least bit uncomfortable being neutered. He even managed to translate some of the political humor to Hollywood (the PSA spoofs were damn-near brilliant at best).
All in all, the upset win aside, the show was pretty good.
-Jason
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